隔海看中国

I’ve only been back to my hometown, Shanghai, for a couple of times since I left China in 1998, . While I was at school, spending $800 for an airplane ticket was too much of a luxury. After graduation, I’ve only been able to treat myself once a year with a two-week feast in Shanghai. When I was there talking to my friends, I found myself, more than once, trying hard to find the right word in a sentence. Not only that, I was still speaking the Shanghai dilate of the late 90s. It is like wearing a Von Dutch trucker hat in the year of 2006, totally not cool. Yet, I’m amused by the idea that I’m a piece of well-preserved language fossil that has a clear imprint of Shanghai in the late 20th century. Unlike the trucker hats which one day might (I hope not) come back in fashion again, the old language is not going to find its way back and will simply fade in people’s memory. The past two decades have seen hundreds of thousands of Chinese students going abroad for their further education. Many of them have chosen to stay. All the linguists out there should be happy to have abundant of historic language samples available for study.

Shanghaiist recently reported that French supermarket Carrefour has moved into Cloud 9 (龙之梦） shopping mall. Reportedly to be Shanghai’s largest shopping mall by floor space, Cloud 9 positioned itself, but has failed miserably, to attract high-end retailers to its 43,000 sq. meter (about 400,000 sq. feet) of retail space. This looks like another episode of the over-ambitious real estate developer meeting over-zealous city planning officer. You would think that these people would go to Plaza 66, a luxury shopping mall located in the busiest and chicest part of Shanghai, on a sunny Saturday and count how many people are actually shopping there before they make their investment decision? These people must have been looking for their imaginary target customers in those trendy lifestyle magazines. Indeed, both domestic and foreign media have been fueling the myth of the upcoming wave of varocious Chinese consumers snapping up global luxury goods.

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答案：废话。没念过书的老太太都知道买东西要挑便宜的，何况是资本操作的老手，全球数一数二的private equity fund 凯雷。便宜肯定是让人占了。真正有意思的话题应该是徐工是否被贱卖了十个亿。

要搞清徐工的价值，第一步是要确定凯雷买的是哪个“徐工”。凯雷以3.75亿美元收购的是徐工机械85%的股份。徐工机械是徐工集团下的子公司。徐工机械通过下属徐州工程机械和徐州重工持有约上市公司徐工科技（000425）43%的股份。媒体报道中经常把徐工机械和徐工集团都称为徐工，这更让人对这笔复杂交易的信息感到抹不着头脑。就连向文波也有意无意的把徐工集团2004年170亿元的营业收入套在了徐工机械上。

徐工科技

徐工科技原为徐工股份。估计是为沾科技股的边，公司在2005年五月更名徐工科技，其主营业务仍然是建筑机械制造及销售。 因为凯雷收购徐工机械的合约中包括收购徐工科技的流通股，其股价从去年九月每股3元左右上涨超过5元。即便以每股3元计，徐工科技的五千四百五十股份共价值约16亿元人民币。徐工科技2005年及2004年的销售额分别为31和38亿元人民币。如果美国机械制造业同行Caterpillar的市值/销售额1.12倍的比率，徐工科技的市值可高达42亿人民币。由于徐工科技的亏损情况，徐工机械拥有的43%的徐工科技股份可保守地估计为7亿人民币。

徐州重型

徐工机械的另一大子公司是徐州重型。据称，徐州重型的经营效益是徐工旗下子公司中最好的一个。 该公司2004年销售额约40亿人民币。去年年利润估计在4亿至5亿元。这样的收益率连Caterpillar也都望尘莫及。按上面提到的1.12倍市值/销售额，徐州重型价值可高达45亿元人民币。

另外，向文波提到徐工机械的品牌价值为机械行业之手，约为80.6亿元。这个数字中的水份实在是太大了。有那位听说过这个世界品牌研究室WOL?

这样粗算下来，徐工机械总共约值52亿元人民币。凯雷所收购的85%的股权价值44亿人民币。当然，在没有公开财务报表的情况下为公司股价好比是瞎子摸象。徐工机械和徐州重型是否有关联交易，徐工科技账面营业额是否准确，这都是些值得深一步研究的问题。